The Man Who Would Be President
Apr 09, 2007 Filed in: Politics
Al Gore: Presidential Candidate or Presidential
Footnote?
In this brave new world of the permanent campaign, one of the most enviable positions for a candidate to be in is to not need to campaign. While there are some doom and gloomers who say that it will soon be too late to get in the race, there are a few heavy hitters who have yet to make up their minds. The right, nervous about Rudy’s liberalism (we haven’t heard about a right-wing crazy man in a dress since J. Edna Hoover’s death), is still looking for their knight in shining armor, thus the flirtations with Newt and Fred. The left is more optimistic about their chances in 2008, but should Barack and Hillary go down in flames, the choice for knight-delegate is obvious: Al Gore.
Not that Al is actually running, mind you, but to be able to pull off a solid third place in most polls while not having made a single fundraising phone call, raised a single penny, or even declared that he seeks or would accept the job, must have the likes of Bill Richardson and John Edwards seething with envy.
In what has to be the greatest slacker campaign in modern history, Al Gore is using every forum possible to spread his message, a good chunk of which is that he is not running for president. He is not running for president, his only campaign is against global warming, he enjoys life much more now, feels he is doing more good now than he ever did before, and has no desire to get back into politics. He has said all of things but conspicuously absent has been one single phrase that would end all speculation: "I will not seek election in 2008." He wants to leave the door ever so slightly ajar.
In 2003, Gore ended speculation of a Bush-Gore rematch when he endorsed former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and asked the grassroots organization draftgore.com to cease and desist. DraftGore is back in business, along with an army of believers ready to sign on to the cause. So why won’t he announce his intention to run? Two reasons: He hasn’t made up his mind, and he’s getting the best publicity possible by shunning publicity.
Traditional advertising has reached its limits. The constant assault by print, billboard, radio, television and internet advertising has led to a general numbness towards the industry. The average American will view an estimated 2 million television advertisements by age 65, to say nothing of the other mediums. Speaking in round numbers, probably 20 million advertisements in a lifetime, which brings new meaning to the term way too much information. The brain can’t hope to process or retain even a fraction of it, so we learn to ignore it, and this has led to the rise of two enormous growth industries in advertising: targeted advertising and guerilla marketing.
Targeted advertising makes use of extremely sophisticated statistical analysis looking at past behavior to predict future interests. It works extremely well for select groups, but not so well if you’re trying to reach a large generalized audience. To reach a generalized audience, for example registered voters, you need a much broader scope in your advertising, but you need your voice not to get lost in the din. The point of guerilla marketing is to get other people to do your talking for you, constantly and repeatedly, as happened in February with the Adult Swim cartoon network’s ad campaign that first caused a bomb scare and then became national news for days. For the moment, Al Gore is running an incredibly effective guerilla campaign. But is he really running for president, or is he just having fun? Probably a little bit of both.
Reasons Al Gore Might Not Want Run For President
Iraq: Even with the best, most effective management possible in the last 21 months of his presidency, George W. Bush will be leaving an enormous mess for his successor, and if the numerous current scandals surrounding the White House are any indication, the mess will only get worse with each month of the countdown until W is history. Yes, a sensible president could put us on the road to recovery in the middle east, but the cleanup job will outlast the next president, and Al knows he would never get credit it for it anyway.
There will be no “winning” solution in Iraq in the short term, and the Neocons have concocted a fail-safe method of assigning blame to others: always raise the stakes. They will never admit failure in Iraq or do anything to correct their mistakes, they’ll just keep compounding them, knowing that eventually a democratic congress or president will end the madness, and then everything will be the democrats' fault, ie, “If only you had the strength of will to continue our policies just a little longer…” John McCain still think we could have won in Vietnam, if only the politicians had done a better job.Vietnam beat President Johnson and Gore must realize it could beat him too.
Terrorism: The foreign policy of Dick Cheney and George W. Bush have done more to foster terrorism than Osama Bin Laden could ever hope to. Bin Laden’s skillfully timed broadcast in 2004, tying in the war in Iraq, terrorism and global warming, had the intended effect of driving Republicans to the polls. The Bin Ladens have always been chummy with the Bushes, and Osama probably thinks of George and Dick as his two best recruiters. With so many new terror cells being formed and so much hatred engendered, sooner or later something bad is going to happen. If it happens with a Republican at the helm, well that just means we need to spend more money, clamp down more, send more people to Guantanamo, eviscerate the constitution a little more, tap a few more phones, and torture a few more citizens. But if it happens with a democrat in charge, then at best, the democrat’s “liberalism” undoubtedly allowed it to happen or, as the Hannity and O'Reilly clones will undoubtedly accuse, was actually in on the conspiracy.
Hillary Clinton: Al Gore has up close and personal experience with just how formidable the Clinton machine is. The thought of taking that machine on probably doesn’t fill him with dread as much as profound weariness. Anyone going against Clinton will have a tough time, but Al will constantly be fighting a two-front war against the Clinton slash-and-burn-win-at-all-costs machine as well as the very similar right-wing-slander machine.
The Right Wing Slander Machine: Does anybody know how much Bill O’Reilly’s electric bill was last month? Or Sean Hannity’s or Rush Limbaugh’s or any other fatcat Republicanazi millionaire’s? Of course not. But Al Gore’s was front page news. This is a well-used RWSM trick: Take your opponent’s strength and turn it into a weakness. Thus, Micheal Dukakis was Boston Harbored, John Kerry was Swift Boated, and now Al Gore is being Inconvenient Truthed. The RWSM will continue to use this technique for as long as it’s effective, which will be until the slandered fight back. Hillary and Bill love a good fight, but Al does not. Historically, he has shown that he would much rather take the high road. From his early days in the senate until his current campaign against global warming, he has consistently held to the belief that if you present the data, people will do the right thing. Gore knew he had won in 2000, not just the popular vote but in the electoral college as well. A recount of the Florida 2000 vote, which he did not request and which did not take place until after the vote was certified, showed that in fact he had won in Florida. But knowing he had won he also knew that he would have little chance of governing effectively. To win in 2008, he would have to wade neck deep into the mud.
Money: To effectively compete for the presidency in 2008 will probably cost half a billion dollars. One hundred million by the end of 2007 is considered the entry fee for serious contenders at this high-stakes political poker tournament. To become a high roller means lots and lots of phone calls, lots and lots of begging, and lots and lots of favors called in and favors promised. This is exactly the kind of sleazy dollars-for-favors politics that Al Gore despises and he would have to saturate himself with it.
Reasons Al Gore Might Want to Run for President
Iraq: No politician has been a more vocal critic of the ill-advised and ruinously managed invasion of Iraq. If ever Gore was tempted to play the role of knight in shining armor, what better opportunity than to right the wrongs of his archnemesis?
Terrorism: The Neocons love to go after Bill Clinton for failing to do more to get Bin Laden, conveniently forgetting that 9/11 happened on Bush’s watch. Whoever comes next is going to need a wealth of political experience, not to mention international experience, as well as the ability to change tactics as necessary. It is possible that Gore looks at the current democratic field (to say nothing of the repubs) and recoils, and sees himself as the nation’s only chance.
Hillary Clinton: Cookie-baking attempts to soften her image aside, the adjective “nice” is not among the many strong adjectives used to describe the former first lady. This is an organization so formidable that it’s tracking Al Gore’s weight. Having been pushed around by Hillary for eight years, it’s possible that Al would like a little payback. And as far as Hillary as president, Gore probably has two fears about that: that she won’t win, and thus we’ll be stuck with Wasit-Deep-In-The-Big-Muddy McCain or Onward-Christian-Soldiers Romey, or that she will win, which amounts to about the same thing.
The RWSM: The problem with shock value is that it only works once, and then you have to change tactics. Thus, a Borat II would be hard to pull off because too many people are now in on the joke. It’s possible that Gore is a little gun-shy after his own bashing at the hands of the RWSM, but he may be emboldened by how flat their techniques fell in the 2006 election, and he may have noticed how easy it was to fight back after the electric bill nonsense. Or maybe he’s just itching for a rematch.
Money: All kinds of would-be presidents set records for the first quarter of 2007, with Clinton, Obama and Romney all checking in at about $23 million. (Hillary’s actual total was $26 million, but she wouldn’t disclose how much of that must be saved for the general election, so the real numbers for her, Barack and Mitt are probably very close.) And as sitting US Senators, Hillary and Barack are able to get a certain amount of free publicity. But does any of that compare to the free publicity that Al has been basking in lately? And as far as donations go, Al has an army at the ready, and there’s no law against donating to more than one candidate, something that will probably do the democrats more good than the repubs for the first time ever, since now more high-end donors are giving to the dems. And that’s to say nothing of the soft money that could come pouring in for Al, given his long list of high roller pals.
Gore’s Decision
So will he or won’t he? He likely hasn’t made up his mind, but to keep his options open he’ll keep himself in the spotlight. For those of us on the sideline, we can only guess. And maybe keep an eye on that waistline.
In this brave new world of the permanent campaign, one of the most enviable positions for a candidate to be in is to not need to campaign. While there are some doom and gloomers who say that it will soon be too late to get in the race, there are a few heavy hitters who have yet to make up their minds. The right, nervous about Rudy’s liberalism (we haven’t heard about a right-wing crazy man in a dress since J. Edna Hoover’s death), is still looking for their knight in shining armor, thus the flirtations with Newt and Fred. The left is more optimistic about their chances in 2008, but should Barack and Hillary go down in flames, the choice for knight-delegate is obvious: Al Gore.
Not that Al is actually running, mind you, but to be able to pull off a solid third place in most polls while not having made a single fundraising phone call, raised a single penny, or even declared that he seeks or would accept the job, must have the likes of Bill Richardson and John Edwards seething with envy.
In what has to be the greatest slacker campaign in modern history, Al Gore is using every forum possible to spread his message, a good chunk of which is that he is not running for president. He is not running for president, his only campaign is against global warming, he enjoys life much more now, feels he is doing more good now than he ever did before, and has no desire to get back into politics. He has said all of things but conspicuously absent has been one single phrase that would end all speculation: "I will not seek election in 2008." He wants to leave the door ever so slightly ajar.
In 2003, Gore ended speculation of a Bush-Gore rematch when he endorsed former Vermont Governor Howard Dean and asked the grassroots organization draftgore.com to cease and desist. DraftGore is back in business, along with an army of believers ready to sign on to the cause. So why won’t he announce his intention to run? Two reasons: He hasn’t made up his mind, and he’s getting the best publicity possible by shunning publicity.
Traditional advertising has reached its limits. The constant assault by print, billboard, radio, television and internet advertising has led to a general numbness towards the industry. The average American will view an estimated 2 million television advertisements by age 65, to say nothing of the other mediums. Speaking in round numbers, probably 20 million advertisements in a lifetime, which brings new meaning to the term way too much information. The brain can’t hope to process or retain even a fraction of it, so we learn to ignore it, and this has led to the rise of two enormous growth industries in advertising: targeted advertising and guerilla marketing.
Targeted advertising makes use of extremely sophisticated statistical analysis looking at past behavior to predict future interests. It works extremely well for select groups, but not so well if you’re trying to reach a large generalized audience. To reach a generalized audience, for example registered voters, you need a much broader scope in your advertising, but you need your voice not to get lost in the din. The point of guerilla marketing is to get other people to do your talking for you, constantly and repeatedly, as happened in February with the Adult Swim cartoon network’s ad campaign that first caused a bomb scare and then became national news for days. For the moment, Al Gore is running an incredibly effective guerilla campaign. But is he really running for president, or is he just having fun? Probably a little bit of both.
Reasons Al Gore Might Not Want Run For President
Iraq: Even with the best, most effective management possible in the last 21 months of his presidency, George W. Bush will be leaving an enormous mess for his successor, and if the numerous current scandals surrounding the White House are any indication, the mess will only get worse with each month of the countdown until W is history. Yes, a sensible president could put us on the road to recovery in the middle east, but the cleanup job will outlast the next president, and Al knows he would never get credit it for it anyway.
There will be no “winning” solution in Iraq in the short term, and the Neocons have concocted a fail-safe method of assigning blame to others: always raise the stakes. They will never admit failure in Iraq or do anything to correct their mistakes, they’ll just keep compounding them, knowing that eventually a democratic congress or president will end the madness, and then everything will be the democrats' fault, ie, “If only you had the strength of will to continue our policies just a little longer…” John McCain still think we could have won in Vietnam, if only the politicians had done a better job.Vietnam beat President Johnson and Gore must realize it could beat him too.
Terrorism: The foreign policy of Dick Cheney and George W. Bush have done more to foster terrorism than Osama Bin Laden could ever hope to. Bin Laden’s skillfully timed broadcast in 2004, tying in the war in Iraq, terrorism and global warming, had the intended effect of driving Republicans to the polls. The Bin Ladens have always been chummy with the Bushes, and Osama probably thinks of George and Dick as his two best recruiters. With so many new terror cells being formed and so much hatred engendered, sooner or later something bad is going to happen. If it happens with a Republican at the helm, well that just means we need to spend more money, clamp down more, send more people to Guantanamo, eviscerate the constitution a little more, tap a few more phones, and torture a few more citizens. But if it happens with a democrat in charge, then at best, the democrat’s “liberalism” undoubtedly allowed it to happen or, as the Hannity and O'Reilly clones will undoubtedly accuse, was actually in on the conspiracy.
Hillary Clinton: Al Gore has up close and personal experience with just how formidable the Clinton machine is. The thought of taking that machine on probably doesn’t fill him with dread as much as profound weariness. Anyone going against Clinton will have a tough time, but Al will constantly be fighting a two-front war against the Clinton slash-and-burn-win-at-all-costs machine as well as the very similar right-wing-slander machine.
The Right Wing Slander Machine: Does anybody know how much Bill O’Reilly’s electric bill was last month? Or Sean Hannity’s or Rush Limbaugh’s or any other fatcat Republicanazi millionaire’s? Of course not. But Al Gore’s was front page news. This is a well-used RWSM trick: Take your opponent’s strength and turn it into a weakness. Thus, Micheal Dukakis was Boston Harbored, John Kerry was Swift Boated, and now Al Gore is being Inconvenient Truthed. The RWSM will continue to use this technique for as long as it’s effective, which will be until the slandered fight back. Hillary and Bill love a good fight, but Al does not. Historically, he has shown that he would much rather take the high road. From his early days in the senate until his current campaign against global warming, he has consistently held to the belief that if you present the data, people will do the right thing. Gore knew he had won in 2000, not just the popular vote but in the electoral college as well. A recount of the Florida 2000 vote, which he did not request and which did not take place until after the vote was certified, showed that in fact he had won in Florida. But knowing he had won he also knew that he would have little chance of governing effectively. To win in 2008, he would have to wade neck deep into the mud.
Money: To effectively compete for the presidency in 2008 will probably cost half a billion dollars. One hundred million by the end of 2007 is considered the entry fee for serious contenders at this high-stakes political poker tournament. To become a high roller means lots and lots of phone calls, lots and lots of begging, and lots and lots of favors called in and favors promised. This is exactly the kind of sleazy dollars-for-favors politics that Al Gore despises and he would have to saturate himself with it.
Reasons Al Gore Might Want to Run for President
Iraq: No politician has been a more vocal critic of the ill-advised and ruinously managed invasion of Iraq. If ever Gore was tempted to play the role of knight in shining armor, what better opportunity than to right the wrongs of his archnemesis?
Terrorism: The Neocons love to go after Bill Clinton for failing to do more to get Bin Laden, conveniently forgetting that 9/11 happened on Bush’s watch. Whoever comes next is going to need a wealth of political experience, not to mention international experience, as well as the ability to change tactics as necessary. It is possible that Gore looks at the current democratic field (to say nothing of the repubs) and recoils, and sees himself as the nation’s only chance.
Hillary Clinton: Cookie-baking attempts to soften her image aside, the adjective “nice” is not among the many strong adjectives used to describe the former first lady. This is an organization so formidable that it’s tracking Al Gore’s weight. Having been pushed around by Hillary for eight years, it’s possible that Al would like a little payback. And as far as Hillary as president, Gore probably has two fears about that: that she won’t win, and thus we’ll be stuck with Wasit-Deep-In-The-Big-Muddy McCain or Onward-Christian-Soldiers Romey, or that she will win, which amounts to about the same thing.
The RWSM: The problem with shock value is that it only works once, and then you have to change tactics. Thus, a Borat II would be hard to pull off because too many people are now in on the joke. It’s possible that Gore is a little gun-shy after his own bashing at the hands of the RWSM, but he may be emboldened by how flat their techniques fell in the 2006 election, and he may have noticed how easy it was to fight back after the electric bill nonsense. Or maybe he’s just itching for a rematch.
Money: All kinds of would-be presidents set records for the first quarter of 2007, with Clinton, Obama and Romney all checking in at about $23 million. (Hillary’s actual total was $26 million, but she wouldn’t disclose how much of that must be saved for the general election, so the real numbers for her, Barack and Mitt are probably very close.) And as sitting US Senators, Hillary and Barack are able to get a certain amount of free publicity. But does any of that compare to the free publicity that Al has been basking in lately? And as far as donations go, Al has an army at the ready, and there’s no law against donating to more than one candidate, something that will probably do the democrats more good than the repubs for the first time ever, since now more high-end donors are giving to the dems. And that’s to say nothing of the soft money that could come pouring in for Al, given his long list of high roller pals.
Gore’s Decision
So will he or won’t he? He likely hasn’t made up his mind, but to keep his options open he’ll keep himself in the spotlight. For those of us on the sideline, we can only guess. And maybe keep an eye on that waistline.
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