Jospeh Lieberman Comes Out of the Closet?
Jan 20, 2007 Filed in: Politics
Ever
wonder what Joe Lieberman is up to? The Connecticut
“Independent Democrat” is certainly
showing his independence, at least from Democrats,
being the only Senate Democrat to back Bush’s escalation of the
Iraq war. His
stance is causing all kinds of hand wringing among
Democrats, who feel the anti-war Ned Lamont should
be occupying his seat in the US Senate, and
Republicans, at least the ones up for reelection
in 2008, who suspect Lieberman would sell his
grandmother for body parts if he could get a few
votes out of it. About the only person who
mentions Lieberman favorably these days is the
president, whose own party is deserting him in
droves.
The liberal Fatalist-Pessimists (who are aligned closely with the Conspiracy Theorists) suspect that this is just the first foray into Republicanism before he switches parties and throws the senate back into the Red column. This is unlikely. Although Lieberman has used his status as potential defector to arm wrestle some choice scraps from a senate leadership that would just as soon see him boiled in Saudi oil, he is a man who knows the lay of the land. He is aware that 2008 is not far off, and with 22 Republican seats up for reelection compared to 11 Democratic seats, it is extremely unlikely that Republicans, if thrown the senate for now, would be able to hold it in 2008, after which revenge on Lieberman would be swift and decisive. Voters in Connecticut, including the Republicans who voted for him, would soon figure out that their state was routinely cut out of the federal pie. And that’s to say nothing of the other type of revenge, which is when you arouse the especial ire and hatred of the opposing party and they make you their Public Enemy Number One. Anybody remember what happened to Jim Wright? All it takes is enough money and enough accusations, and Senator Lieberman wouldn’t need to wait until 2012 to see his career come crashing down in flames. (Perhaps a better example of what unfounded accusation can do would be former New York prosecutor Steven Pagones, who was cleared of all charges relating to the 1987 Tawana Brawley fiasco and later won a defamation lawsuit against Al Sharpton, but had his reputation savaged in the process. A party-switching Lieberman might be the next politician looking at the ruins of his career wondering: To what office do I apply to get my reputation back?)
No, Joe is too much interested in long-term political survival to be likely to switch. Probably his discussions with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and other senate leaders went something like this:
“Being one of only two independents in a very narrowly divided senate, I’m sure you’d like to keep me in your column, Harry.”
“Sure, Joe, but we’d look pretty unfavorably on outright blackmail. Things could get very ugly.”
“Of course, of course, nothing like blackmail. But it would be nice to have something to take back to my constituents…”
“You can stay on Homeland Security and Armed Services, and I’ll throw in Small Business.”
“Deal.”
The second possibility for why Lieberman is supporting the escalation is out of pure mule-headed stubbornness. He would not be the first politician willing to sacrifice thousands of American lives (not to mention many times that number of the lives of non-Americans) and uncounted billions of dollars rather than admit a mistake (see, for example, Vietnam, History of American Involvement In). By always calling for more troops, he can lay the blame of failure on someone else. If this “surge” doesn’t work, he’ll call for another. Sooner or later, we’ll pull out, and he can always say that if we had just backed one more surge, we would have won. Among all the horrible possibilities of what might be going on in his twisted mind, this is the one I’d actually hope for.
The third possibility is the most insidious and the one I fear the most. Among the most self-serving and deadly of policies being shopped around by right wing think tanks these days is that the spread of sectarian violence throughout Iraq is a good thing. The “best and the brightest” of the far-right (check out, for example, what's coming out of the American Enterprise Institute these days) actually believe that having sectarian violence spread from Iraq throughout the middle east would be good for American business interests. Even in Israel, which certainly has a lot more to lose from a destabilized middle east, there are those on the far right who think that it’s in their interests to fuel sectarian violence. These are the same people, both in America and Israel, who think that attacking Iran right now would be a dandy thing to do. It is frighteningly possible that Lieberman has aligned himself with this lunacy. He knows the Iraqis want a timetable for our withdrawal. He knows that Bush’s international policies foment a land-office business in the spread of extremism and recruitment of terrorists. Is he, already so deep into a failed policy, buying into a plan that says risk World War III on the outside chance that we can weather the storm and some huge corporations can make a few more billions? That possible explanation of the senator’s support of the escalation of the war is truly the stuff of nightmares, making the possibility of his wanting to just throw his hat in with the Republicans a visit to Disney World in comparison. For myself, I’m hoping he’s just plain stubborn, and that enough Republicans have seen the light to pull the plug on the president, so that Lieberman’s opinion, however he arrived at it, won’t amount to anything more than the braying of an ass.
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The liberal Fatalist-Pessimists (who are aligned closely with the Conspiracy Theorists) suspect that this is just the first foray into Republicanism before he switches parties and throws the senate back into the Red column. This is unlikely. Although Lieberman has used his status as potential defector to arm wrestle some choice scraps from a senate leadership that would just as soon see him boiled in Saudi oil, he is a man who knows the lay of the land. He is aware that 2008 is not far off, and with 22 Republican seats up for reelection compared to 11 Democratic seats, it is extremely unlikely that Republicans, if thrown the senate for now, would be able to hold it in 2008, after which revenge on Lieberman would be swift and decisive. Voters in Connecticut, including the Republicans who voted for him, would soon figure out that their state was routinely cut out of the federal pie. And that’s to say nothing of the other type of revenge, which is when you arouse the especial ire and hatred of the opposing party and they make you their Public Enemy Number One. Anybody remember what happened to Jim Wright? All it takes is enough money and enough accusations, and Senator Lieberman wouldn’t need to wait until 2012 to see his career come crashing down in flames. (Perhaps a better example of what unfounded accusation can do would be former New York prosecutor Steven Pagones, who was cleared of all charges relating to the 1987 Tawana Brawley fiasco and later won a defamation lawsuit against Al Sharpton, but had his reputation savaged in the process. A party-switching Lieberman might be the next politician looking at the ruins of his career wondering: To what office do I apply to get my reputation back?)
No, Joe is too much interested in long-term political survival to be likely to switch. Probably his discussions with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and other senate leaders went something like this:
“Being one of only two independents in a very narrowly divided senate, I’m sure you’d like to keep me in your column, Harry.”
“Sure, Joe, but we’d look pretty unfavorably on outright blackmail. Things could get very ugly.”
“Of course, of course, nothing like blackmail. But it would be nice to have something to take back to my constituents…”
“You can stay on Homeland Security and Armed Services, and I’ll throw in Small Business.”
“Deal.”
The second possibility for why Lieberman is supporting the escalation is out of pure mule-headed stubbornness. He would not be the first politician willing to sacrifice thousands of American lives (not to mention many times that number of the lives of non-Americans) and uncounted billions of dollars rather than admit a mistake (see, for example, Vietnam, History of American Involvement In). By always calling for more troops, he can lay the blame of failure on someone else. If this “surge” doesn’t work, he’ll call for another. Sooner or later, we’ll pull out, and he can always say that if we had just backed one more surge, we would have won. Among all the horrible possibilities of what might be going on in his twisted mind, this is the one I’d actually hope for.
The third possibility is the most insidious and the one I fear the most. Among the most self-serving and deadly of policies being shopped around by right wing think tanks these days is that the spread of sectarian violence throughout Iraq is a good thing. The “best and the brightest” of the far-right (check out, for example, what's coming out of the American Enterprise Institute these days) actually believe that having sectarian violence spread from Iraq throughout the middle east would be good for American business interests. Even in Israel, which certainly has a lot more to lose from a destabilized middle east, there are those on the far right who think that it’s in their interests to fuel sectarian violence. These are the same people, both in America and Israel, who think that attacking Iran right now would be a dandy thing to do. It is frighteningly possible that Lieberman has aligned himself with this lunacy. He knows the Iraqis want a timetable for our withdrawal. He knows that Bush’s international policies foment a land-office business in the spread of extremism and recruitment of terrorists. Is he, already so deep into a failed policy, buying into a plan that says risk World War III on the outside chance that we can weather the storm and some huge corporations can make a few more billions? That possible explanation of the senator’s support of the escalation of the war is truly the stuff of nightmares, making the possibility of his wanting to just throw his hat in with the Republicans a visit to Disney World in comparison. For myself, I’m hoping he’s just plain stubborn, and that enough Republicans have seen the light to pull the plug on the president, so that Lieberman’s opinion, however he arrived at it, won’t amount to anything more than the braying of an ass.
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